Brick-and-mortar businesses will face headwinds, while parts proliferation provides competitive opportunities for eCommerce in DIY and DIFM markets
Fort Wayne, Ind.—A greater array and depth of parts will be needed in today’s aftermarket to repair as the diversity of cars and light trucks on U.S. roads grows. Parts proliferation is now growing exponentially across the light-vehicle aftermarket, according to the latest Lang Aftermarket iReport.
Lang Marketing projects that it will grow through 2030 and beyond, and will increase inventory requirements and the logistical needs for manufacturers, distributors, retailers and installers across the U.S.
This presents challenges for brick-and-mortar businesses at all levels of the aftermarket. At the same time, parts proliferation provides competitive opportunities for eCommerce in both the Do-It-Yourself (DIY) and Do-It-For-Me (DIFM) markets for both parts and o2o (online-to-offline) repairs.
Key Factors Driving Parts Proliferation
Lang states that parts proliferation in the light vehicle aftermarket is driven by four key factors: more new vehicle models, high-tech features in new vehicles each year, a changing VIO age mix and profile, and a shift in annual mileage toward older cars and light trucks.
Factor 1: Increase in New Vehicle Models
From 2024 through 2026, more new car and light truck models, many of them electric and hybrid, will be introduced to the U.S. market than in almost any other three-year period. In many cases, these new models, especially those with electric motors, are bringing a whole new range of automotive parts to the aftermarket.
Factor 2: More High-Tech in Existing Models
In addition to new vehicle models, the increasing technical complexity of all new vehicles is expanding the range of products that the supply chain must handle.
The number of smart parts (vehicle components with specialized sensors and software) has increased more than fivefold in the aftermarket since 2016. Over the next few years, there will be an increase in new vehicles equipped with advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS).
Factor 3: Changes in the VIO’s Age Mix and Profile
Anemic new-vehicle sales since 2020 (compared with record-high annual volumes from 2015 to 2019) and the growing life expectancy of the nation’s VIO are causing vehicle owners to keep driving older car for longer.
The average age of light vehicles has climbed a record 1.5 years since 2016, and the VIO’s age profile is changing. Cars and light trucks over 12 years old will be the fastest-growing vehicle-age segment through 2030.
Accordingly, the age range of older vehicle parts that must be inventoried will continue to expand at all levels of the aftermarket.
Factor 4: Mileage Shift to Older Vehicles
Billions of annual miles are shifting to older vehicles in the U.S. Not only are older vehicles rapidly increasing in number, but they are also being driven more miles annually. This is pushing their odometer readings to record-high levels.
As older vehicles are driven more, they are rolling up greater aftermarket product volume per mile. So, in addition to expanding the age range for which vehicle parts must be inventoried, this is increasing the quantity of parts for older vehicles that must be available.
In a related development, consumer sensitivity to auto parts pricing is rising, fueled by the growth in older vehicles on the road and rising repair rates. This is increasing demand for serviceable products that are not necessarily “better” or “best.”
Challenges and Opportunities
Many participants in the multi-tiered auto parts distribution channels have long believed that extensive inventories favor their distribution methods and capabilities.
However, it is increasingly difficult for the aftermarket to deliver the “instant availability” of auto parts that, for years, has reinforced consumers’ expectations of same-day automotive repair at the hundreds of thousands of auto service outlets across the country.
These challenges of parts proliferation for brick-and-mortar aftermarket participants are assisting the growth of eCommerce.
• First, eliminating multiple distribution levels can provide eCommerce with pricing advantages over brick-and-mortar distributors and retailers.
• Second, reducing consumer expectations of the “instant availability” of many parts from brick-and-mortar operations will undercut one of their former key advantages over eCommerce competitors.
The inconvenience of waiting a day or so for parts from eCommerce sources will fade as a disadvantage for consumers. In the DIFM market, this shift will be especially important to the growth of o2o auto repair.
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