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More products per mile ups ICE aftermarket spend

ICE vehicles will continue to generate strong aftermarket sales, even if sales estimates of EVs materialize, which is increasingly improbable

Fort Wayne, Ind.—Car and light truck aftermarket product sales are climbing many times faster than light vehicle mileage across the U.S. Over the past five years, the growing average age of vehicles in operation (VIO) and the increasing number of cars and light trucks topping 12 years old have “boosted” aftermarket product use per vehicle mile, according the the latest Lang Aftermarket iReport.

“Growing product use per mile among older vehicles will generate the continued aftermarket product growth of internal combustion engine (ICE) cars and light trucks, as they dominate the older vehicle age groups through this decade and beyond,” states the analysis.

The following are key takeaways from the report.

Aftermarket Growth

Three factors largely determine aftermarket product growth: vehicles in operation (VIO), annual mileage, and aftermarket product use per mile traveled. Over the past five years, the relationship between these factors has changed significantly.

Modest VIO Growth: 2019 to 2024

The nation’s VIO increased at a moderate pace between 2019 through 2024. From approximately 279 million cars and light trucks in operation at mid-year 2019, the VIO climbed by 2.9% over the next five years, topping an estimated 287 million in 2024.

The new vehicle market averaged nearly 1.5 million fewer annual sales from 2019 to 2024 than the record-high sales levels of the preceding five years, creating a headwind for car and light truck VIO growth.

VIO and Mileage

In 2020, Covid-19 caused light vehicle mileage to experience a double-digit annual loss. Although mileage rebounded during the following years, it barely topped pre-COVID-19 levels by 2024.

Light vehicle mileage increased by much less than the annual pace of VIO growth between 2019 and 2024, about 1.1% versus 2.9%. Accordingly, the average car and light truck recorded lower annual mileage in 2024 than in 2019.

Aftermarket Product Growth

Over the years, light vehicle aftermarket product growth has resulted mainly from an increase in the nation’s VIO and the resulting mileage expansion. However, aftermarket dynamics were different between 2019 and 2024. Despite a moderate increase in the VIO (less than a 3% gain), light vehicle miles failed to respond accordingly.

The faster growth of the nation’s VIO compared to light vehicle mileage resulted in the average car and light truck’s annual milage dropping by about 350 from 2019 to 2024.

Increasing Light Vehicle Product Growth

Despite only a 1.1% increase in light vehicle miles between 2019 and 2024 and a sizeable drop in the annual mileage of the typical car and light truck, light vehicle aftermarket product volume increased approximately $13 billion over these five years, topping an 11% gain at user-price.

Aftermarket product growth was more than three times stronger than the VIO increase and over 10 times the pace of total light vehicle mileage growth.

Aftermarket Product Use and Mileage

Several factors can alter the relationship between mileage growth and aftermarket product use.

• Older vehicles generally use more aftermarket products per mile than newer cars and light trucks. Not all miles traveled are equal, with higher vehicle age being a product-use multiplier per mile.

• The volume of accessories (and some other products) is related more to the number of newer vehicles on U.S. roads, especially light trucks, than mileage growth.

ICE Aftermarket Boost

The aftermarket’s ability to generate product growth primarily from increased product use per mile by older cars and light trucks is great news for the volume of ICE aftermarket products in the coming years.

Virtually all cars and light trucks in older age categories will be ICE vehicles for a long time. These older vehicles will disproportionately contribute to aftermarket product volume compared to their share of the total light vehicle population and miles driven.

This will be an aftermarket sales multiplier for ICE cars and light trucks over the next 10 to 15 years.
ICE vehicles will continue to generate strong aftermarket sales for many years, even if the robust sales estimates of EVs materialize, something that is increasingly improbable.

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