“For consumers holding out for the traditional summer selldown events, the reality of this market is going to be a tough pill to swallow,” says Edmunds
Santa Monica, Calif.—Edmunds has forecast that 4,170,533 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in the second quarter of 2026, representing a 1.0% decrease from the second quarter of 2025 but an 11.3% increase compared to the first quarter of 2026.
“Q2 started on a rocky note as climbing gas prices put a temporary damper on April sales, but a strong rebound in May and June proved that buyers with immediate new-car needs can only sit on the sidelines for so long,” said Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds’ head of insights. “While the auto industry appears stable on the surface, growth is being held back by finance rates stuck around 7% on average and leasing rates stuck below 20%.
“However, comparison with last year’s Q2 is murky due to the pull-ahead sales triggered by the April 2, 2025, tariff announcements, and Q3 won’t be any clearer now that the EV tax credit has been dissolved.”
Edmunds analysts note that automakers are keeping supply and demand in near-perfect lockstep heading into the summer sales months. That discipline is leaving little room for significant discounting or pushing aggressively for market share gains as the industry now prefers prioritizing high margins over higher volume.
“For consumers holding out for the traditional summer selldown events, the reality of this market is going to be a tough pill to swallow,” said Ivan Drury, Edmunds’ director of insights. “Automakers are keeping a tight lid on inventory, so they simply don’t have the excess vehicles to warrant the deep clearance discounts that some holdout consumers have been hoping to see.
“With interest rates hovering around 7% and leasing providing little relief, the financial hurdles remain high.”
SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
| SALES VOLUME | 2026 Q2 Forecast | 2025 Q2 Sales | 2026 Q1 Sales | Change from 2025 Q2 | Change from 2026 Q1 |
| GM | 708,053 | 746,756 | 626,529 | -5.2% | 13.0% |
| Toyota | 666,944 | 666,477 | 570,357 | 0.1% | 16.9% |
| Ford | 544,928 | 612,126 | 457,323 | -11.0% | 19.2% |
| Hyundai/Kia | 488,193 | 473,283 | 432,376 | 3.2% | 12.9% |
| Honda | 399,308 | 387,574 | 336,830 | 3.0% | 18.5% |
| Stellantis | 324,534 | 310,760 | 306,369 | 4.4% | 5.9% |
| Nissan | 240,071 | 222,210 | 247,069 | 8.0% | -2.8% |
| Industry | 4,170,533 | 4,212,596 | 3,747,051 | -1.0% | 11.3% |
MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
| Market Share | 2026 Q2 Forecast | 2025 Q2 Sales | 2026 Q1 Sales | Change from 2025 Q2 | Change from 2026 Q1 |
| GM | 17.0% | 17.7% | 16.7% | -4.2% | 1.5% |
| Toyota | 16.0% | 15.8% | 15.2% | 1.1% | 5.1% |
| Ford | 13.1% | 14.5% | 12.2% | -10.1% | 7.1% |
| Hyundai/Kia | 11.7% | 11.2% | 11.5% | 4.2% | 1.4% |
| Honda | 9.6% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 4.1% | 6.5% |
| Stellantis | 7.8% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 5.5% | -4.8% |
| Nissan | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 9.1% | -12.7% |
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