And by 2029, the market is projected to grow to over $500 billion, continuing a sustained growth trajectory since the pandemic
Bethesda, Md. and Research Triangle Park, N.C.—A new industry report is forecasting that the total U.S. light-duty automotive aftermarket will grow 5.2% year-over-year, reflecting continued strength across non-warranty sales of parts, fluids and service labor.
And by 2029, the market is projected to grow to over $500 billion, continuing a sustained growth trajectory that builds on the industry’s post-pandemic rebound, according to the 2026 Joint Channel Market Size and Forecast, released by the Auto Care Association and MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers, and prepared by S&P Global Market Intelligence.
Despite ongoing global challenges, including a meaningful headwind from the Iran conflict, the outlook for the aftermarket remains positive. Resilient consumer behavior is expected to sustain demand, with Americans continuing to rely on personal vehicles and log sufficient miles driven to support steady aftermarket activity in line with the past several years.
The report provides a detailed analysis of the automotive aftermarket landscape, examining key macroeconomic factors, vehicle trends and evolving consumer behaviors that continue to shape industry growth.
Several structural trends are expected to underpin industry expansion through the forecast period:
- Aging vehicle fleet: The continued aging of the U.S. light-duty fleet will drive increased demand for repair and maintenance services.
- Rising vehicle complexity: Increased penetration of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and other emerging technologies is elevating repair complexity and service value.
- Sustained consumer reliance on vehicles: Despite economic uncertainty, consumers remain dependent on personal transportation, supporting consistent aftermarket spending.
“The U.S. automotive aftermarket remains fundamentally strong, supported by long-term vehicle and consumer trends,” said Bill Hanvey, president and CEO, Auto Care Association.
Emily Poladian, president, MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers, added, “Despite ongoing economic and geopolitical uncertainty, the U.S. automotive aftermarket continues to demonstrate remarkable resilience, driven by consumers’ commitment to maintaining and repairing their vehicles.”
The Joint Channel Forecast is available in the Auto Care Association’s 2027 Auto Care Factbook at digital.autocare.org/2027factbook and at the MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers website at mema.org.
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