The industry will experience a shift in DIFM market share and parts proliferation will significantly rise as lower new auto sales increase the average age of vehicles
Fort Wayne, Ind.—New car and light truck annual sales in the U.S. peaked from 2015 to 2019 and will trend downward to 2030 and beyond.
Ongoing changes in vehicle pricing, financing costs, vehicle durability, and ownership cycles will significantly shrink the annual volume of new car and light truck sales, according to a Lang Marketing industry analysis.
“This extended downsizing of the new vehicle market will have dramatic consequences for at least five major aspects of the light vehicle aftermarket in the U.S., ranging from the size of the nation’s VIO to parts proliferation, among others,” states the latest Lang Aftermarket iReport. “The pace of these aftermarket changes will accelerate as the size of the new vehicle market continues to shrink.”
Over 18 Million New Vehicle Sales Lost
After record-high annual sales averaged more than 17.2 million from 2015 through 2019, the new light-vehicle market fell to 14.4 million in 2020, with a minor uptick to 15.1 million in 2021 before dropping to 13.4 million in 2022, the lowest annual volume since the 2008 economic downturn.
Affected by the economic and social consequences of COVID-19, the U.S. new car and light truck sales rebounded to 15.9 million in 2024, before peaking in 2025 at sales of 16.3 million.
Lang Marketing projects the 2026 new vehicle market will decrease to 15.8 million and average about 16.0 million per year from 2026 to 2030.
At that pace, total new vehicle sales will fall more than 18 million short between 2020 and 2030 compared with what sales would have been had the 17.2 average annual sales rate recorded between 2015 and 2019 been maintained.
Forces Shrinking New Auto Sales
The U.S. new vehicle market is facing significant headwinds from four key forces that will remain strong for the foreseeable future, steadily reducing annual sales levels, according to the analysis.
These forces include, but are not limited to, record-high new vehicle prices, longer and more expensive financing, improved durability of cars and light trucks, and changing new-vehicle ownership cycles.
New Vehicle Prices
Prices of new cars and light trucks in the U.S. have substantially increased. Over the past 10 years (2015 to 2025), average prices climbed nearly 50%, from $34,000 to more than $49,000.
More significant, however, was the drop of economy, entry-level models, states Lang Marketing. The sub-$20,000 auto disappeared. Today, the lowest-priced new autos cost nearly $30,000.
Prices did not climb at the same pace by vehicle nameplate. The report notes that two U.S. nameplate groups led the pricing increase: Stellantis and Ford, up an average of nearly 60%.
Longer Financing
Higher new auto prices and high interest rates are lengthening the average financing period, compounding the cost of a new vehicle.
In 2015, a 60-month new car loan was standard, with interest rates averaging just over 4%. Last year, the average loan stretched to 69 months, with interest rates increasing by more than two-thirds compared to 10 years earlier. In addition, long-term loans, up to 84 months, tripled to represent almost 8% of the 2025 market.
With the price tag of a typical new vehicle now near $50,000, average monthly payments have been pushed to a historic high of about $700. This, states Lang Marketing, is forcing many middle-class U.S. buyers out of the new vehicle market.
Greater Vehicle Durability
Over the past few decades, several factors have combined to extend the on-road life of cars and light trucks.
• New vehicle engine components are machined with greater precision, and high-tech synthetic lubricants reduce internal engine wear.
• The materials and coatings used in new vehicle construction make them much more resistant to rust and deterioration.
• The increasing sales prices of new autos keep their values high so that they are less likely to be scrapped after an accident.
As a result of those and other factors, the durability and general on-the-road life expectancy of light vehicles has climbed three to five years compared to just a few decades ago.
Changing Ownership Cycles
In 2015, the typical new vehicle buyer kept ownership for about 6.5 years before replacing it with a new model. However, the analysis says that increasing new car and light truck prices, along with longer and more expensive financing, have expanded the initial ownership period for new vehicle buyers to an average of about eight years.
This has reduced the number of potential new buyers each year.
Aftermarket Impact
The shrinking annual volume of the new vehicle market will affect at least five key aspects of the light vehicle aftermarket to 2040 and beyond, according to the Aftermarket iReport.
• The annual growth pace of the nation’s VIO will slow. From 2025 to 2030, it will climb at less than one-half the annual rate that it did between 2015 and 2019, when yearly sales were at a record high.
• Declining new auto sales will help to maintain the dominant VIO share of ICE cars and light trucks, as EVs face lower forecasted sales in a shrinking new vehicle market.
• Lower yearly sales mean that the average age of the vehicle fleet (dominated by ICE models) will increase in the coming years, setting new average age records virtually every year from 2026 to 2030.
• With new vehicle buyers holding onto their purchases far longer than in the past, they will be more likely to visit dealers for repairs over more years than buyers did in the past. This will impact the DIFM market share of repair outlets and the sales volume of the five major types of brands competing in the light vehicle aftermarket.
• Parts proliferation in the aftermarket will significantly build as lower new vehicle sales increase the average age of vehicles and keep cars and light trucks on the road for longer. Manufacturers and distributors will need to maintain parts inventories across an extended age range of vehicles.
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