The trend has four significant consequences for aftermarket product sales, including more heavy repairs and additional replacement cycles for numerous parts
Fort Wayne, Ind.—More than 18 million cars and light trucks avoided being scrapped in the U.S. from 2015 through 2025, according to the latest Lang Aftermarket iReport.
This reduction in scrappage has four significant consequences for vehicles in operation (VIO): the number of cars and light trucks on the road, the share of domestic and foreign nameplate vehicles, the growth of older automobiles, and the VIO domination by ICE vehicles.
The following are key takeaways from Lang’s analysis.
Aftermarket Consequences
Low scrappage rates have impacted the aftermarket in at least four major ways.
• The expanding VIO and the growth of older cars and light trucks are favorable for aftermarket product growth, particularly as annual miles per vehicle face continued headwinds from the effects of COVID-19 and other factors.
• Below-average scrappage affects the foreign and domestic nameplate mix, with consequences for the aftermarket in terms of where automotive parts are sold and where vehicles are serviced.
• The dominant ICE share of the VIO has “significant” aftermarket consequences, ranging from the brands of repair products used to the total volume of aftermarket products and the locations where parts and services are purchased.
• The continuing growth of older vehicles at least 15 years old, which are virtually all ICE models, is increasing heavy repairs, often involving engines and transmissions, and adding to the number of replacement cycles of a wide range of vehicle components, including brakes, electronics, suspension, and engine controls, among other parts.
Vehicles in Operation (VIO)
Vehicle scrappage (the removal of vehicles from operation) in the U.S. has traditionally been coordinated with new vehicle sales and the VIO age profile. When new car and light truck sales increase or the number of older vehicles expands, the U.S. annual scrappage rates climb. However, this has not been the case in the last 10 years.
Lower annual vehicle scrappage rates from 2015 to 2025 increased the nation’s VIO by more than 18 million cars and light trucks, vehicles that would have ended up in the junkyard had the scrappage rates remained at their previous high levels.
The 18 million cars and light trucks not scrapped accounted for about 55% of the total VIO gain (approximately 32 million) during those years.
Older Domestic Nameplate Population Increases
Domestic nameplate cars and light trucks have accounted for more than 70% of all vehicles scrapped over the past 10 years. They are more likely than newer models to be “totaled” in accidents, due to their diminished value, and less likely to be avoid being scrapped due to expense of repairs.
However, the domestic nameplate population loss was about 12 million fewer during this period. Consequently, the moderate scrappage rates have been a major cause of the record growth in the number of domestic nameplate vehicles on the road that are at least 15 years old.
More ICE Vehicles
Virtually all of the more than 18 million cars and light trucks not scrapped from 2015 through 2025 were Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles.
The number of ICE vehicles not scrapped totaled about three times the number of EVs sold during those years. ICE vehicles accounted for 98% of the nation’s 2025 VIO, a much larger share than if scrappage rates had remained high.
ICE Aftermarket Strength
Low annual scrappage rates have helped keep the ICE aftermarket strong in the U.S. Accounting for 99% of the nation’s 2025 light-vehicle aftermarket product volume, ICE cars and light trucks will continue to expand their aftermarket sales through 2030 and beyond.
ICE models will dominate older vehicle age groups for decades, ensuring their key position in the evolving aftermarket.
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