New analysis reports that the predictions of EVs dominating U.S. roads are “overblown.”
Fort Wayne, Ind.—Much has been discussed about the impact of Electric Vehicles (EVs) on the new car and light truck market. However, little has been mentioned about the consequences of EVs for the Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) aftermarket.
In its most recent analysis, Lang Marketing reports that the predictions of EVs dominating U.S. roads are “overblown” and that their consequences for the ICE car and light truck aftermarket will be limited for many years.
Four factors are critical to aftermarket product volume: the number of vehicles in operation (VIO), their use (annual mileage), the VIO’s age profile, and the number of vehicles in specific age groups.
To project the consequences of EVs for the ICE aftermarket, it is necessary to examine the four factors driving aftermarket product volume.
Here are key takeaways from the study.
Growth of EVs in Operation
Despite their share of the new car and light truck market increasing nearly fourfold between 2016 and 2022, EVs currently represent just over 1% of the nation’s VIO, and their impact on aftermarket product volume has been less.
Annual Miles
While there is some disagreement, most data indicate that EVs are driven fewer miles per year than ICE cars and light trucks of the same age. Accordingly, the aftermarket product use of EVs, as reflected by the miles they are driven, will be less than their impact on the nation’s VIO.
Vehicle Age
Vehicles of various ages do not contribute equally to aftermarket product volume. Most replacement parts withstand years of use before they are replaced. So far, most EVs on U.S. roads are less than three years old, an age at which replacement parts (except tires) are not consumed in quantity.
Vehicle Population of Age Categories
The fourth element determining aftermarket product volume is the population of vehicles in age categories with high rates of aftermarket product use. The repair-age sweet-spot (vehicle age category with the highest aftermarket volume of many products) spans the sixth to tenth year of operation.
Due to the lower than expected rate of new Electric Vehicle sales in the U.S., it will take many years before they enter the repair-age sweet-spot in large numbers and are driven annually to the point where they replace a significant share of ICE vehicle product use.
Conclusions
Lang Marketing estimates that EVs will replace only a small portion of ICE aftermarket product volume over the next five years. The underperformance of EVs in the four factors driving aftermarket growth will result in ICE aftermarket product volume achieving significant annual growth over the next five years.
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