Expect leaders in advanced engines and fuels to keep innovating their existing products and exploring new technologies and fuels
The 29th meeting of the Council of the Parties (COP29) wrapped up with hopes of new agreements from the U.S. and other nations on climate finance and more ambitious national commitments (nationally determined contributions, NDCs) to reduce carbon emissions.
In less than 60 days former President Trump comes into office and has pledged to pull the U.S. out of any international climate commitments, such as the 2015 Paris Climate Accord.
The impacts of the impending change in the administration, and anticipated reversal of support for climate commitments, appear to have dominated discussions at this year’s COP29. During Trump’s first term, withdrawal from the climate accord was announced in June 2017, six months into the first term but only formalized in late 2020, owing to United Nations regulations. News reports suggest that world leaders are already anticipating a replay of that past period.
Expectations of a hawkish trade and tariff policy with China will likely get thrown into the mix of justification for forthcoming U.S. actions against China. Include in that new data from CarbonBrief show that China’s historical emissions within its borders have now caused more global warming than the 27 member states of the European Union combined. China now has the world’s highest carbon emissions on an annual basis. These new findings are of particular interest as the focus of this year’s COP is discussions over which countries should contribute to a global climate change mitigation fund—and how much money.
At COP 29, the U.S. delegation including 13 federal officials, three governors or their representatives (California, Maryland and Washington State); and four mayors (Albuquerque, N.M.;, West Sacramento, Calif.; Blytheville, Ariz., Brooklyn Park, Minn.) ) attended. Federal officials promoted U.S. strategies and policies for decarbonization as models for the world. The U.S. Department of Transportation used the international stage to release a new resource, a “playbook” guidebook “Climate Strategies that Work;” strategies for decarbonizing the transportation sector. This resource is built off of the Decarbonization Blueprint that the U.S. DOT released earlier this year. It includes 27 strategies. The White House Council on Environmental Quality promoted federal efforts on green procurement with its Federal Buy Clean Initiative.
This year’s event host Azerbaijan—a nation heavily dependent on petroleum production—set the stage for more discussion about energy. Nine members of Congress attended COP29, and some shared their voices on social media. Rep. Troy Balderson (R-Ohio) shared on X, “At this year’s COP29, I joined my Republican colleagues in calling for the return of American energy leadership. By tapping into America’s vast natural resources & unleashing American energy production, we can export clean, reliable LNG to our allies while meeting growing demand here at home.”
Given the reality that—according to CarbonBrief—94% of the global carbon budget for the target of the 1.5 degrees C warming threshold has been used up, perhaps more attention to resilience and adaptation to changing conditions is in order. Changing conditions are no stranger to us, especially this year. At a U.S. Center COP29 event, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration discussed disaster-resilient infrastructure.
They also revealed that as of November 1, the country experienced 24 weather and climate disaster events in 2024, each of which resulted in losses exceeding $1 billion. Other researchers put it this way: “We’re not saying that climate change caused a particular extreme weather event. What we are saying is, ‘Here’s the extent climate change has modified it.’”
It’s safe to say that the U.S. will adopt a new approach to energy and environmental policy in 2025, and it will surely be different in emphasis and effect. Some states may be emboldened to “pick up the slack” on climate policy and double down on their own efforts, 24 states already have climate policies
Transitions in political leadership by their very nature always bring about disruption, uncertainty, and change. But some tenets and norms endure: Access to energy is a critical enabler for all peoples and nations. A diverse energy mix including cleaner forms of energy is valuable; market-driven policies and incentives are typically favored over mandates. And advanced internal combustion engines fueled by gasoline, diesel, natural gas, and propane are the backbone of the global economy. They deliver the power and mobility that we demand and are technologies of continuous improvement.
Regardless of the outcome at COP29 and despite the anticipation of change from the incoming Trump Administration, expect leaders in advanced engines and fuels to keep innovating their existing products and exploring new technologies and fuels like advanced renewable biofuels electrification, or hydrogen. They never tire from making their products more efficient and productive because they know their customers demand it and market competition ensures it.
They see the world well beyond today’s government mandate or scheme driving technology choices for a particular vehicle or machine. They have conquered several decades of progressively more stringent challenges to meet standards for emissions that are now truly at near-zero levels with lower fuel consumption. They always think about the big picture for their customers.
Through that lens, the opportunity for future gains in efficiency and productivity may be greater and more likely to succeed with a focus on how we work and not just which technologies or fuels we use to do the work.
Innovative work practices like connected construction equipment on a job site, precision agriculture machines and practices, autonomous operation or accelerating fleet turnover have deserve greater attention and consideration. All of those can save time, cut operating costs, and lower emissions. Bringing life-cycle and circular economy considerations more into the mainstream in developing policies that impact manufacturing, fuels and technology would add another beneficial dimension.
We’re witness now to the real and growing market, infrastructure and technology challenges facing manufacturers to simultaneously meet tighter fuel economy and emissions requirements and the forced introduction of new fuels and technologies. Sorting out what happens next for energy, climate, and environmental policy will dominate the airwaves and our brainwaves in the coming months. To some it may seem like a hard reversal in the wrong direction. Others may see it as a course correction.
There are many ways and motivations that contribute to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and cleaner air. Working more efficiently and doing more work in less time saves money and uses less energy. And less energy means lower carbon and other emissions.
Maybe that’s more how climate policy will look in the future.
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