As new vehicle sales decline, billions of miles that would have been driven by newer cars and light trucks are shifting each year to older light vehicles
Fort Wayne, Ind.—Nearly 15 million fewer new cars and light trucks will be sold in the U.S. between 2020 and 2026 compared to the annual volume during the previous five years (2015 through 2019).
According to the latest Lang Aftermarket iReport, the sales downturn is changing the age mix of the nation’s VIO (vehicles in operation) and shifting billions of annual miles from newer to older cars and light trucks, which are virtually all internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles.
“This has significant implications for aftermarket product use and the growth of car and light truck products on U.S. roads, especially among ICE vehicles,” states the analysis.
The following are highlights from the report.
New Vehicle Sales Down by 15 million
The U.S. new vehicle market is in one of its longest downturns. With the new car and light truck market facing steep lending rates and record-high sticker prices, Lang Marketing estimates that approximately 15 million fewer new cars and light trucks will be sold in the U.S. between 2020 and 2026 compared to the 17.3 million average annual new vehicle sales from 2015 to 2019.
Annual light vehicle sales have decreased an average of 15% per year since COVID-19, and the decade will likely end before annual sales return close to pre-pandemic levels, a longer recovery period than after the 2008 Great Recession.
Mileage by Vehicle Age
Newer vehicles roll up thousands more miles each year than older cars and light trucks. Vehicles under six years old average nearly 14,000 miles per year on U.S. roads compared to fewer than 7,500 miles recorded by the typical car or light truck over 10 years old.
Billions of miles that would have been driven by newer cars and light trucks, however, are shifting each year to older light vehicles, which are virtually all ICE models, creating an aftermarket sales multiplier for those miles.
Mileage Shift and Product Use Per Mile
All miles are not equal in the amount of repair product use they generate, and vehicle age determines the relationship between miles driven and auto repair volume. Older vehicles average greater aftermarket product use per mile than newer cars and light trucks.
From 2020 through 2026, nearly a trillion “shifted” miles are generating much more aftermarket product volume than if the new vehicle market had remained healthy. By 2030, this mileage shift, and the boost to aftermarket volume it generates, will total more than two trillion miles since 2020.
Increasing Vehicle Age
In addition to shifting billions of miles each year from newer cars and light trucks to older models, the drop in the new vehicle market is driving up the average age of all vehicles.
Lang Marketing estimates that the average vehicle age will top 13 years by the beginning of 2027, up more than a full year from 2019. This rise in the average age of the nation’s VIO is shifting billions of miles each year to older vehicles as the nation’s entire VIO ages, generating more repair volume.
“The increased use of older vehicles (and the greater product and service volume they require per mile traveled) will be a primary factor boosting car and light truck aftermarket product sales for the foreseeable future,” states Lang. “This is especially true of ICE light vehicles, which account for over 99% of cars and light trucks six years and older across the U.S.”
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