The service opportunity does not depend on next year’s sales. It is already parked in your customers’ driveways and a shop without proper training sends it down the street.
Battery-electric vehicle sales in the U.S. have fallen sharply since the federal tax credit ended in September 2025. Many technicians and shop owners have read that as permission to drop electrification training. The sales data say otherwise. The high-voltage vehicles reaching service bays are overwhelmingly hybrids, hybrid sales are at a record level, and a hybrid carries the same high-voltage systems as an EV.
MYTH: EV sales in the U.S. are slumping badly, so technicians no longer need training on high-voltage vehicle electrification systems.
FACT: Battery-electric sales are down, but hybrid sales are at a record and still climbing. A hybrid uses the same high-voltage systems as an EV. Electrification training remains necessary for any aftermarket business that intends to grow.
EV Sales Fell. Hybrid Sales Did Not.
Hybrids now outsell battery-electric vehicles in the U.S. by about 2.5 to 1, and the gap has widened every year since 2023.
| Year | Hybrid (HEV) sales | Battery-electric (BEV) sales | Hybrids sold per BEV |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 1.18 million | 1.16 million | 1.0 |
| 2024 | 1.61 million | 1.24 million | 1.3 |
| 2025 | 2.08 million | 1.24 million | 1.7 |
| 2026 (January to August) | 1.66 million | 0.65 million | 2.5 |
Source: Argonne National Laboratory monthly sales data.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration reports that hybrids reached a record 16% of new light-duty sales in the second quarter of 2026. Battery-electric share fell to 6% and plug-in hybrids to 1.4%. J.D. Power put hybrid retail share at 18.2% in August 2026, with volume up 35.5% from a year earlier.
The Forecast: Hybrids Keep Growing
No major forecaster expects the hybrid trend to reverse.
- Hybrids: Cox Automotive tracked hybrid share rising from about 5% in 2023 to a forecast 16.3% in the third quarter of 2026. Mobility Global projects full hybrids will approach one-third of North American vehicle assembly by 2030.
- EVs: BloombergNEF now expects EVs to reach 17% of U.S. sales in 2030, down from the 48% it forecast in 2024.
- Policy: NHTSA’s 2026 fuel economy standards are built on gasoline, diesel and non-plug-in hybrid vehicles. Hybrids are now the practical route to better fleet fuel economy.
Add hybrids to even that reduced EV forecast, and high-voltage vehicles are a growing share of each year’s sales.
Same High-Voltage Systems, Different Battery Size
A hybrid is a high-voltage vehicle. The main differences from an EV are battery energy (kWh), the presence of an engine, and plug-in charging hardware.
| System | Hybrid (HEV) | Plug-in hybrid (PHEV) | Battery-electric (BEV) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Traction battery energy | About 1 to 2 kWh | About 10 to 25 kWh | About 60 to 100+ kWh |
| Battery voltage | About 200 to 350 V; some designs boost to 650 V at the inverter | About 300 to 400 V | About 350 to 800 V |
| Battery management system, contactors, pre-charge circuit | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Three-phase inverter | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Permanent-magnet motor-generator(s) with position sensor | Yes, often two | Yes | Yes |
| DC/DC converter for the 12 V system | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| High-voltage electric A/C compressor | Most | Yes | Yes |
| Isolation monitoring, interlock loop, service disconnect | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Battery cooling | Air or liquid | Liquid | Liquid |
| On-board charger and charge port | No | Yes | Yes, plus DC fast charging |
| Internal combustion engine | Yes | Yes | No |
Values are typical; confirm against OEM service information.
The safety standards draw no line between the two. FMVSS No. 305 applies by working voltage, above 60 VDC or 30 VAC, not by battery size. ISO 6469-3 and SAE J2344 cover hybrid and battery-electric vehicles alike. A 1.5 kWh hybrid pack at more than 200 V sits in the same hazard class as an 80 kWh EV pack.
The diagnostic skills are the same, too: isolation fault tracing, contactor and pre-charge faults, inverter and motor-generator analysis, resolver offset, DC/DC converter testing and battery state-of-health assessment. A hybrid adds engine-to-electric power blending on top.
26 Years of Hybrids Are Already in the Field
The service opportunity does not depend on next year’s sales. It is already parked in your customers’ driveways.
- About 13.9 million hybrids have been sold in the U.S. since the first one arrived in December 1999.
- 13.4 million hybrids and plug-in hybrids were in operation in mid-2026, against 6.2 million battery-electric vehicles, according to Experian. Hybrids outnumber EVs on the road by more than 2 to 1.
- About 4.9 million hybrids were sold through 2018. Those vehicles are eight or more years old, past the hybrid component warranty typical of their era.
- About 3.1 million hybrids were sold from 2015 through 2021. Experian calls those model years, 6 to 12 years old, the aftermarket “sweet spot.”
These vehicles need battery testing and reconditioning, inverter and converter diagnosis, cooling system service, and isolation fault repair. That work goes to the shop with trained technicians and the right equipment. A shop without them sends it down the street.
About Dr. Mark Quarto
As an EVT consultant, engineer, SME, author, and professional educator, Dr. Mark Quarto has supported alliances and customers in the development of electric propulsion and energy management power systems for over 35 years. His specialty is developing diagnostic software and hardware systems, diagnostic information, and pioneering control systems that permit innovative diagnostic techniques, technical training curriculum and diagnostic apps/tool development. He can be reached at 1-586-216-8875 and mark@quartotechservices.com
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