Overall U.S. light vehicle aftermarket to gain approximately $190 billion, or 3.4% annually, driven by consumer trends of “repair, don’t replace”
Bethesda, Md. – Research Triangle Park, N.C.—Hybrids are playing a larger role in how Americans move toward electrified vehicles. A new report from Auto Care Association and MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers finds that hybrid sales are poised to grow substantially over the next decade.
Battery electric vehicle (BEV) adoption in the U.S., however, continues at a slower pace than in China and Europe. The findings point to a transition that includes an important hybrid phase before BEVs become more prominent.
The 2026 Joint Powertrain Trends & Outlook Forecast projects that hybrids will grow from 17% of U.S. new vehicle sales in 2026 to 32% in 2035. BEV share is forecast to rise from 8% in 2025 to 25% in 2035.
The report also puts the powertrain shift in the context of a growing aftermarket. The U.S. light-vehicle aftermarket, including warranty and post-warranty activity, is forecast to increase from $543 billion in 2026 to $733 billion in 2035, a gain of approximately $190 billion, or 3.4% annually.
Growth is driven by consumers’ “repair, don’t replace” reaction to the cost of new and gently used vehicles. Price and product mix are also contributing to growth as vehicle population growth remains modest.
Within the post-warranty market, parts revenue associated with electrification is forecast to grow approximately 24% annually through 2035, while ADAS hardware revenue is projected to grow approximately 23% annually.
Additional report highlights
- U.S. BEV adoption trails other markets. BEVs accounted for approximately 6% of U.S. new-vehicle sales in the first half of 2026, compared with 38% in China and an estimated 23% in European markets.
- Price remains a hurdle. Automakers are placing greater emphasis on models priced below $45,000, a segment where more new-vehicle sales occur.
- Hybrids can cost less to own. Despite higher purchase prices, hybrids have a lower three-year total cost of ownership than comparable internal combustion engine vehicles because of lower fuel costs and higher residual values.
- Buyers will have more choices. The number of hybrid models is expected to triple between 2025 and 2035, across full hybrids, plug-in hybrids and range-extended vehicles.
“The shift toward electrification is not happening in one straight line,” said Philip Atkins, director of strategic research and planning at MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers. “Hybrids are becoming a bigger part of the picture, and suppliers need to plan for that reality.
“The mix of vehicles on the road will keep changing, and understanding where that demand is headed will help companies make better decisions about products and investment.”
Michael Chung, executive director of market intelligence at Auto Care Association, commented, “Price and choice matter to consumers, and the forecast makes that clear. As more hybrid models become available and automakers focus on affordability, the market is responding.”
The 2026 Joint Powertrain Trends & Outlook Forecast is available to Auto Care Association and MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers members as a membership benefit. Non-members can purchase the report at digital.autocare.org or mema.org.
Comments are closed.