From 2019-2025, the annual product volume of the average light vehicle accelerated by more than 15%, marking a change in aftermarket dynamics
Fort Wayne, Ind.—The car and light truck population on U.S. roads increased at a 1.8% annual rate between 2015 and 2019, but the VIO (vehicles in operation) growth decreased by more than half to about a 0.7% annual pace over the following six years.
In contrast, light vehicle aftermarket product sales increased much faster, rising at a 2.5% annual average between 2015 and 2019, according to the new 2027 Lang Aftermarket Annual report.
From 2019 to 2025, light vehicle aftermarket product volume expanded three times faster than car and light truck VIO, states the analysis, even though COVID-19 caused a double-digit drop in 2020 aftermarket product sales. VIO growth slowed as new vehicle sales decreased beginning in 2020.
The following are highlights from the report.
VIO Growth
At mid-year 2015, there were an estimated 259 million cars and light trucks across the U.S. and the VIO topped 279 million by 2019. This 20 million vehicle population gain represented 1.8% annual growth, several times stronger than the VIO’s average yearly gain over the previous 10 years, when the 2008 economic downturn depressed new vehicle sales for over four years.
Decreasing Vehicle Growth Rate
COVID-19 in 2020 caused the U.S. VIO growth to slow during the next 6 years (2020 to 2025), with millions fewer new cars and light trucks sold, reflecting a diminished 0.7% average annual VIO increase.
The new vehicle market fell by 2.6 million in 2020, followed by further declines in 2021 and 2022. Through mid-year 2026, the new vehicle market’s total volume since 2019 remained down more than 13 million from the record-high annual sales during 2015 to 2019.
As a result, the light vehicle VIO expansion between 2015 and 2025 was just under 31 million, amounting to a modest 1.1% average annual gain.
Product Increase
Light vehicle aftermarket product sales climbed one-third faster than the VIO expansion rate between 2015 and 2019. This was a significant accomplishment, states the analysis, since the new vehicle market was recording record-high annual sales during those years.
Following a 1.8% average yearly increase from 2015 to 2019, VIO annual growth dropped to only 0.7% between 2020 and 2025. This is the lowest rate of VIO growth since the 2008 economic downturn.
Unlike the flattening VIO growth, aftermarket volume staged a historic recovery from nearly a double-digit decrease in 2020 sales, changing what had long been a direct relationship between VIO and aftermarket growth.
Aftermarket Triples VIO Growth Rate: 2019-2025
Following the aftermarket’s growth topping the growth rate of the nation’s VIO from 2015 to 2019 by about one-third, the aftermarket accelerated over the next 6 years and more than tripled the annual growth pace of the VIO: 2.4% versus 0.7%.
This marked a notable change in aftermarket dynamics, with the greatest difference recently recorded between the growth rates of the aftermarket and VIO.
2020 to 2025: Changing Aftermarket Growth Dynamics
The impact of the nation’s VIO on aftermarket growth had traditionally been based primarily on the vehicle population. The aftermarket increase from 2021 to 2025 resulted from changing vehicle characteristics, not their total number.
Specifically, the increasing age of vehicles and the expanding number of older cars and light trucks were the key elements driving aftermarket growth at a pace three times that of VIO annual growth.
Greater Annual Product Use Per Vehicle
Aftermarket product use of the typical car and light truck in the U.S. climbed significantly between 2019 and 2025. Over those 6 years, the annual product volume of the average light vehicle increased by more than 15%, despite the 2020 impact of COVID-19.
This increase in average vehicle product volume generated approximately 90% of the total light vehicle aftermarket growth from 2019 to 2025.
With the ongoing gains in light vehicle average age and the increasing number of vehicles on the road at least 15 years old, Lang Marketing projects continued growth in the average vehicle’s annual product volume.
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