The most significant trend to emerge in the state is the shift in consumer preference within the alternative powertrain sector
Sacramento, Calif.—The California New Car Dealers Association (CNCDA) has released its California Auto Outlook Report covering 2024 vehicle registrations in the state. The report summarizes California’s new vehicle registrations and predicts anticipated yearly sales.
Tesla’s dominance in the electric vehicle market continues to falter as the brand reported its fifth consecutive quarterly registration decline. Tesla’s registrations fell 7.8 percent in Q4 2024, contributing to an overall 11.6 percent decline in 2024. The company’s market share also dropped by 7.6 points in 2024, now holding 52.5 percent of the Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) market for the year. Amongst all brands, Tesla’s share of California’s market is 11.6 percent, down from 13 percent in 2023.
Overall, California’s new vehicle registrations among all brands remain stable. More than 1,759,000 light vehicles were registered in the Golden State in 2024, representing only a -0.3 percent change from 2023. Projections for 2025 are optimistic, with registrations expected to rise slightly to 1.80 million for the year.
New vehicle registrations in Q4 2024 increased by 4.8 percent compared to the same period in 2023, signaling positive momentum heading into 2025. However, the first quarter of 2025 is expected to remain fairly flat.
Key Highlights
The most significant trend to emerge this quarter is the shift in consumer preference within the alternative powertrain sector. ZEV market share for all brands dipped to 21.3 percent in Q4, down from 23.7 percent in Q3 2024. Annual California ZEV totals hit 22 percent (market share in 2023 was 21.7 percent).
Registrations for all alternative powertrains reached 40.2 percent for the year and 42.2 percent in Q4. Notably, hybrids made up the ground lost by ZEVs, gaining 2.4 percentage points in Q4, matching the 2.4 point decline in ZEV registrations. This shift suggests that California consumers may be looking to transition gradually from internal combustion engines (ICE) to fully electric vehicles, with hybrids emerging as an increasingly popular option.
Brand Market Share and Summary
Among all powertrains and brands, Toyota is king in California, with 289,258 registrations in 2024, a 4.4 percent increase from last year, and now capturing 16.4 percent of California’s market share.
Other YTD market share brand leaders: Tesla and Honda (with 10.9 percent market share). Honda wrapped the year with an 11.5 percent increase in registrations this year (192,166 registrations).
Four brands have improved their registrations by 20 percent (or more) in 2024. These brands include Lincoln (27.6 percent), Land Rover (22 percent), Cadillac (21.7%), and Buick (21.7 percent).
Model Segment Rankings
California’s best sellers in the primary segments in 2024 were the Toyota Camry, Tesla Model 3, Honda Civic, Toyota Tacoma, Chevrolet Silverado, Toyota RAV4, Subaru Outback, and Lexus RX.
The top three passenger cars sold in California to wrap 2024 were neck and neck to the finish line. The Toyota Camry came out the winner with 11.4 percent of the market. Tied for second place were the Honda Civic and Tesla Model 3, with 11 percent of California’s market share. The top three light trucks sold were the Tesla Model Y (128,923 registrations), the Toyota RAV4 (65,041), and the Honda CR-V (49,920 registrations).
Regional Variances
Northern California saw a 12.6% decline in passenger cars but a 1.5% rise in light trucks, with ZEVs accounting for 25.1% of the region’s market share. In Southern California, passenger car registrations dropped by 10.3%, while light trucks grew 5%, with ZEVs making up 22.7% of the market.
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