Under-powered new vehicle sales will impact the aftermarket in at least five ways, providing long-term opportunity
Fort Wayne, Ind.—Low new vehicle sales in recent years continue to provide opportunity for the automotive aftermarket, and new tariffs will only add to the tailwind for parts and service and repair providers.
“A few months ago, analysts predicted that 2025 would be a comeback year, with the new vehicle market topping 16.5 million for the first time since 2019. However, the recently announced tariffs on vehicle imports and many parts used in vehicles assembled in the U.S. have vaporized this optimism,” states the latest Lang Aftermarket iReport, noting that the U.S. new vehicle market could fall to 15.2 million or lower.
According to the analysis, under-powered new vehicle sales will impact the aftermarket in at least five ways, providing a strong tailwind for aftermarket sales (which face their own tariff challenges) through 2030, especially Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicle products.
Those changes, prompted by tariffs, will help increase aftermarket product volume through 2030, states Lang Marketing. The following are highlights from the report.
New Vehicle Market Sputters
New car and light truck sales were severely impacted by COVID-19, averaging 14.8 million autos during 2020 and 2021. The new vehicle market declined further in 2022, with fewer than 14 million in sales.
New vehicle sales averaged nearly 15.7 million during the last two years, compared to the 17.2 million annual average sales from 2015 through 2019. Over 10 million fewer vehicles were sold from 2020 through 2024 than during the five years.
Tariffs Impact Vehicle Sales but Aftermarket Benefits
Lower new vehicle sales will lead to various significant changes that will provide a strong tailwind for the 2025 aftermarket and for years to come, according to the analysis.
• Higher used vehicle prices.
• Vehicle average age growth.
• More miles on older vehicles.
• An upward extension of the age boundary of the repair-age sweet-spot.
• A slowdown in the expansion of the Electric Vehicle population on U.S. roads.
1. Used Vehicle Prices
Low new vehicle sales (caused by tariff-driven price hikes) will increase the cost of used cars and light trucks. As buyers turn away from the expensive new market and shift to more affordable pre-owned options, increased demand for a limited supply of used vehicles will increase their value.
With the high-priced used market, consumers will be more likely to repair their older cars and light trucks to keep them in good operating condition. This forecasts aftermarket product sales growth, especially for ICE vehicles, which comprise virtually all vehicles over five years old, states Lang Marketing.
2. Increasing Vehicle Average Age
The struggling new vehicle market will elevate the average age of vehicles in operation (VIO). With fewer new cars and light trucks on the road, older vehicles will be kept in operation longer, and their numbers will expand.
The growing average age of vehicles, along with a higher number of older models on the road, will help to increase aftermarket sales because aging cars and light trucks require more maintenance and replacement parts than newer ones.
3. More Miles on Older Vehicles
As consumers keep their vehicles rather than replace them with newer ones, older vehicles accumulate more miles. Older vehicles use more aftermarket products per mile, and rolling their odometers higher will increase aftermarket product use, especially among ICE cars and light trucks.
4. Older Aftermarket Sweet-Spot
Lower new vehicle sales between 2020 and 2025 will drive down the number of cars and light trucks in the repair-age sweet-spot (age categories 6 to 10 years old with the highest rates of product replacement) from 2026 through 2030 compared to today’s VIO.
However, this does not mean that fewer repair parts will be sold. Instead, older vehicles will account for a larger number of miles driven, and the upper age boundary of the sweet-spot will be increased by a year or more. Since older vehicles use more aftermarket products per mile than newer cars and light trucks, this will increase aftermarket product volume.
5. Slower EV Population Growth
Lower new vehicle volume will translate into fewer EVs sold. This will slow the EV population growth. With EVs holding a small share of the nation’s VIO, ICE vehicles will retain their population dominance longer. This will bolster aftermarket volume since ICE cars and light trucks use more aftermarket products than EVs.
Compounding Impact of Lower New Vehicle Sales
The overall impact of low new vehicle sales will increase the average age and age mix of the nation’s VIO, transfer miles to older cars and light trucks, slow the growth of EVs on the road, and provide a strong tailwind for aftermarket product volume over the next five years.
Lang Marketing predicts that the new vehicle sales brownout will extend through 2026 and could last longer, providing momentum for more aftermarket product growth through 2030 and beyond.
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