Buyers today are more affluent than ever, so they may not be as impacted by inflationary pressures as much as other consumers
Atlanta—New vehicle sales in May are expected to show a market that remains relatively stable in the face of economic uncertainty and an ongoing war in the Middle East.
The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of sales is forecast by Cox Automotive to finish near 16.1 million. The expected sales pace is an improvement over last May’s 15.6 million level and a gain from last month’s 15.9 million pace.
New vehicle sales volume in May is expected to be mostly flat from year-ago levels, increasing a modest 0.1%, but rising 7% over last month. There are 26 selling days this month, which is the same as last month, but one less than last year.
The market is being shaped by competing factors right now, and the forecast calls for the vehicle sales pace to remain in the high-15 million to low-16 million range this month, an improvement from earlier in the year and a pace similar to much of 2025.
Although fuel prices are sharply higher and consumer sentiment is at historic lows, the stock market has returned to record highs, and the auto market is likely still benefitting from this year’s larger tax refunds and tax benefits.
“May sales appear to be holding up despite significant economic uncertainty,” Cox Automotive Senior Economist Charlie Chesbrough noted. “New-vehicle buyers today are more affluent than ever, so they may not be as impacted by inflationary pressures as much as other consumers who are more acutely feeling the sharply higher fuel costs.
“If the economy and stock market can remain on this growing but volatile path, new-vehicle sales will likely follow. However, those are two large necessities during extremely volatile times.”
May 2026 New-Vehicles Sales Forecast
| Sales Forecast | Market Share | ||||||||
| Segment | May-25 | Apr-26 | May-26 | YOY% | MOM% | Apr-26 | May-26 | MOM | |
| Mid-Size Car | 72,460 | 70,298 | 75,000 | 3.5 % | 6.7 % | 5.1 % | 5.1 % | 0.0 % | |
| Compact Car | 109,957 | 104,677 | 110,000 | 0.0 % | 5.1 % | 7.6 % | 7.5 % | -0.1 % | |
| Compact SUV/Crossover | 246,312 | 238,727 | 255,000 | 3.5 % | 6.8 % | 17.3 % | 17.3 % | 0.0 % | |
| Full-Size Pickup Truck | 215,511 | 189,330 | 205,000 | -4.9 % | 8.3 % | 13.7 % | 13.9 % | 0.2 % | |
| Mid-Size SUV/Crossover | 240,405 | 242,055 | 255,000 | 6.1 % | 5.3 % | 17.6 % | 17.3 % | -0.3 % | |
| Other Segments | 588,205 | 533,926 | 575,000 | -2.2 % | 7.7 % | 38.7 % | 39.0 % | 0.3 % | |
| Grand Total | 1,472,850 | 1,379,013 | 1,475,000 | 0.1 % | 7.0 % | ||||
Comments are closed.