Domestic nameplates will continue to shrink in VIO share, and will represent a diminishing percent of the repair-age sweet spot
Fort Wayne, Ind.—In 2024, domestic car and light truck product sales, which once dominated the light vehicle aftermarket, will fail to top their 2005 volume. Total light vehicle product volume has increased by more than 50% at user-price over the past 19 years. However, according to the latest Lang Aftermarket iReport, the domestic nameplate 2024 aftermarket remains “underwater” compared to 2005.
“Despite foreign nameplates generating all of the light vehicle aftermarket product growth since 2005, some segments of the domestic nameplate aftermarket have increased,” states Lang. “However, their product sales growth has been offset by the decline of other domestic nameplate segments.”
The following are key takeaways from the report.
Domestic Nameplate VIO Decline
Domestic nameplates held a dominant share of light vehicles in operation (VIO) for many years, averaging over two-thirds of the VIO between 2000 and 2010. However, their VIO share has steadily declined since then. By 2018, domestic nameplates had fallen to 55% of vehicles on U.S. roads, representing a minority of the light vehicle VIO during 2024. Over the past 10 years, the nation’s VIO increased by nearly 40 million, while the domestic nameplate population dropped as it decreased by over 10 million.
Domestic Nameplate 2024 Product Sales Below 2005
Domestic nameplates increased their annual aftermarket product sales only seven times between 2005 and their projected 2024 volume. These isolated gains were impacted by the many years of falling domestic nameplate product sales. Domestic nameplates’ product volume peaked in 2015 at user-price. However, it decreased after 2015, and their annual sales for 2024 will be about 4% less than in 2015.
Over the same nine years, total light vehicle product sales rose by more than 20%, a strong showing given the aftermarket drop in 2020 due to the economic impact caused by COVID-19. The presence of domestic nameplates on U.S. roads will continue to fade, and they will account for about 2% lower product sales in 2024 than 19 years earlier in 2005.
Aftermarket Sales per Vehicle
The average 2024 product volume per domestic nameplate will be about 12% less than for foreign nameplates. This will drive the product share of domestic nameplates below their portion of the nation’s VIO.
Decreasing Aftermarket Product Share
Domestic nameplates fell from 67% of car and light truck product sales in 2005 to 61% by 2012. They continued to slip in light vehicle product share, falling to less than 50% of the 2021 market. Lang Marketing estimates that domestic nameplates will capture less than 45% of the 2024 light vehicle product market at user-price.
Domestic Cars Experience the Entire Product Decrease
Cars have shouldered all of the reduction in domestic nameplate aftermarket product volume and share between 2005 and 2024. Domestic car aftermarket product sales will have decreased 70% at user-price over this 19-year span.
At the same time, domestic light truck product volume will increase by over 25%, but it will fail to overcome the downward product drop of the domestic nameplate car aftermarket. Accordingly, domestic nameplates will not contribute to the over 50% gain in overall light vehicle product sales from 2005 to 2024.
Future Developments
The market forces that have led to the decrease of the domestic nameplate aftermarket will persist. Domestic nameplates will continue to shrink in VIO share, and they will represent a diminishing percent of the repair-age sweet spot, which contains cars and light trucks with the highest replacement rates across a broad range of vehicle products.
These and other factors will continue to widen the gap between domestic and foreign nameplates in the average annual use of repair and maintenance products.
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