Through 2030, the new vehicle market downturn will have a variety of consequences, but auto parts volume will continue to grow strongly
Fort Wayne, Ind.—New vehicle annual sales in the U.S. will fall by nearly 15% from 2020 to 2026, compared to the record-high yearly volume recorded between 2015 and 2019, according to the latest projections by Lang Marketing.
This new vehicle market dynamic is sending repercussions throughout the light vehicle aftermarket, which traditionally has relied on new auto sales to expand the nation’s vehicle population and stimulate aftermarket growth.
“Through 2030, and beyond, this significant downturn of the new vehicle market will have a variety of consequences for the light vehicle aftermarket, some good and some not-so-good, but auto parts volume will continue to grow strongly, especially for Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) cars and light trucks,” Lang states in its latest Aftermarket iReport.
The following is a breakdown of the analysis.
16 Million Fewer New Vehicles Sold
New car and light truck annual sales in the U.S. averaged 17.3 million vehicles between 2015 and 2019, a record-high level.
COVID-19, however, undercut the new vehicle market in the U.S., causing it to fall abruptly in 2020 to 14.7 million, down almost 20% from the previous year. Annual sales continued at low levels, with 14.9 million in 2021 and a slide to 13.8 million cars and light trucks in 2022. Annual sales averaged 15.5 in 2023 and 2024.
2025 New Vehicle Sales and Beyond
Lang Marketing projects that in 2025 and 2026, the new light vehicle market in the U.S. will be impacted by tariffs and other factors, causing it to slip to an average yearly sales level of about 15.2 million.
New car and light truck volume will total over 16 million fewer cars and light trucks during 2020 through 2026 compared to sales at the 17.3 million annual average of the previous five years (2015 through 2019).
VIO Impact
The new vehicle shortfall between 2020 and 2026 will be a downward force on the growth of vehicles in operation (VIO).
Nevertheless, the negative impact of lower new vehicle sales on the nation’s VIO will be largely offset by the reduction in the country’s automotive scrappage rate (starting in 2022) as the transportation needs of consumers and businesses are saving millions of cars and light trucks from retirement.
ICE Vehicle Population and Aftermarket Volume
While ICE vehicles will represent over 90% of the 16 million or so vehicles not sold from 2020 to 2026, they will constitute virtually all of the million cars and light trucks that will avoid the scrappage over those seven years.
Since older vehicles require more repair parts per mile than newer models, ICE vehicles that remain on the road due to lower scrappage represent much greater aftermarket product volume (through the end of this decade) than the ICE vehicles that have not entered service due to struggling new vehicle sales since 2020.
Aftermarket Impact
The average age of vehicles will climb, and the number of older cars and light trucks will reach historic high levels. Accordingly, older cars and light trucks will travel more miles, and their odometers will reach record levels. This will provide a strong tailwind for aftermarket product sales through 2030.
Foreign Nameplate Aftermarket
The foreign nameplate aftermarket will be boosted in future years by the growing foreign nameplate share of new car and light truck sales.
However, the moderate auto scrappage rates resulting from the weak new vehicle market will keep millions of older domestic light vehicles on the road, which will slow the pace of the inevitable growth of the foreign nameplate aftermarket.
Repair-Age Sweet Spot
The ongoing reduction in new vehicle volume is working its way through the VIO age mix to the repair-age sweet-spot (vehicles 6 to 10 years of age). At mid-year 2030, the repair-age sweet spot population will be down by nearly 15%, compared to the number of cars and light trucks in the 6 to 10-year age bracket seven years earlier.
Aftermarket Consequences
The falling population of the 6-to-10-year repair-age sweet-spot will not reduce aftermarket volume because miles on U.S. roads, which will continue to increase, will be shifted to older vehicles that generate more aftermarket product volume per mile than newer models.
Overall Impact
Low new car and light truck annual sales between 2020 and 2026 (and, perhaps, beyond) will be positive for the aftermarket (especially ICE vehicle product volume) through this decade. The only products negatively affected will be those with relatively high rates of use among newer vehicles, such as tires and selected accessories.
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