The question isn’t “How do we survive tariffs?” It’s “Are we building the kind of operation that can absorb any shock and emerge stronger?”
The Greenland tariff standoff proves one thing: tariffs aren’t an anomaly anymore, they’re a recurring reality. When the 25% automotive tariffs hit in April 2025, they exposed a fundamental divide in the industry — not between those who saw it coming and those who didn’t, but between organizations built to pivot and those that weren’t.
According to Syncron’s 2025 State of the Aftermarket research, 51% of OEMs are now optimizing parts inventory and demand planning in response to tariff challenges. But here’s what’s more revealing: the organizations responding most effectively aren’t the ones who predicted tariffs. They’re the ones who built aftermarket operations resilient enough to absorb any shock: tariffs, supply chain disruptions, demand volatility, or the next crisis no one sees coming.
A year ago, I wrote about how strategic adaptability is the only long-term solution for OEMs facing unprecedented disruption. Today’s data proves it — the aftermarket isn’t just surviving the tariff era. For organizations that built resilience into their operations, it’s emerging as the growth engine that keeps OEMs profitable when everything else falters.
Why Aftermarket is the Ultimate Shock Absorber
When disruption hits, three things make the aftermarket uniquely resilient.
First, demand is predictable. Consumers keep existing vehicles/machines longer when new purchases become expensive or uncertain, creating an aging fleet with escalating service needs. Parts account for 57% of aftermarket revenue with far more stable demand patterns than new equipment sales.
Second, margins are defendable. Proprietary OEM parts protect market share from third-party competitors and command premium pricing that absorbs cost shocks better than high cost new unit sales.
Third, revenue is recurring. Today, most OEMs report that 10-29% of total revenue comes from the aftermarket. Within five years, that figure is projected to climb to 30-49%. This isn’t temporary growth — it’s a fundamental shift in where OEM profitability lives.
The aftermarket has transformed from supporting player to strategic shock absorber, and 81% of OEMs are backing that transformation with increased investment over the next five years.
What Makes an Aftermarket Operation Resilient
The 51% of OEMs actively responding to tariff challenges by optimizing inventory and demand planning aren’t just managing the current problem — they’re building capabilities that will carry them through the next 10 disruptions.
Inventory Intelligence That Adapts in Real Time
Rigid inventory strategies break under pressure. Stockpile everything and you tie up cash. Run too lean and service failures damage customer relationships. Neither survives volatility.
Resilient organizations use AI-powered demand forecasting that balances just-in-time with just-in-case dynamically. They identify which SKUs face the highest risk exposure — today it’s tariff-sensitive parts, tomorrow it could be components from a politically unstable region. They map optimal routing that shifts as conditions change. And critically, they integrate dealer network inventory so parts can move laterally when primary supply chains face delays.
Pricing That Protects Margins Without Destroying Demand
Blanket price increases kill demand and leave money on the table. A 25% tariff doesn’t mean every part should cost 25% more. High-demand parts with limited alternatives might support 35-50% increases, while commoditized inventory may only bear 15-20% — the key is pricing to the market, not to the tariff.
Resilient operators use machine learning to model price elasticity part by part, customer segment by customer segment. The 35% of OEMs now using dynamic pricing can respond in real-time — not just to tariffs, but to competitor moves, supply cost changes, or demand shifts.
Business Models That Decouple Revenue From Volatility
Service contracts lock in predictable revenue streams that absorb spot-market volatility. When parts costs spike, customers on uptime guarantees or predictive maintenance contracts don’t see immediate impact. The OEM manages short-term fluctuations while maintaining the relationship and securing long-term revenue.
That’s why 39% of OEMs are exploring new business models like subscriptions and contracts. The smartest ones started years ago, and they’re the same ones navigating tariffs most effectively today. They didn’t build these models for tariffs specifically — they built them for resilience generally.
The Technology Foundation of Resilience
One third of OEMs rate their data quality and accessibility as less than “good” — and these are the organizations struggling most with disruption response. Data silos, manual processes, and disconnected systems don’t just slow you down. They make you brittle.
Here’s the uncomfortable truth: having data isn’t the problem anymore. The problem is that your data lives in so many places, in so many formats, updated on so many different schedules, that by the time you stitch it together into something actionable, the decision window has closed.
One automotive OEM leader described it perfectly: “There’s a lot of ‘stitching together’ going on with our internal data. Then the fact that we don’t really have unfettered access to our dealers’ sales data makes it really hard to get that end-to-end picture. You want to know how many parts we sold to our dealers yesterday? I can give that to you. You want me to tell you how many they sold? I have no clue.”
In contrast, OEMs with integrated operations report stronger revenue growth and faster adaptation to market changes. The technology enables speed, and speed is survival.
The Mindset Shift: From Stability to Adaptability
But technology alone doesn’t create resilience. The deeper shift is strategic mindset.
For decades, OEMs designed operations for stability — slow, predictable, resistant to change. That worked in a stable world. Today’s world isn’t stable, and organizations optimized for stability break under pressure.
The winners will be optimizing for adaptability instead. Nearly half of OEM leaders now cite improving aftermarket services and operations as a top strategic priority over the next two years. They’re not doing this because tariffs happened. They’re doing this because they recognize disruption as the new normal.
The old model treated the aftermarket as supporting vehicle sales. The new reality recognizes the aftermarket as the business foundation — predictable, profitable, and resilient enough to carry the company through whatever hits next.
Beyond Today’s Crisis
Tariffs are just the current example. Tomorrow it will be something else: continued supply chain reshuffling, EV transition complexity, the next geopolitical shock, climate events, regulatory changes, or disruptions we haven’t imagined yet.
The organizations responding most effectively to tariffs today are the same ones who’ll navigate the next crisis most effectively. Not because they’re better at predicting what’s coming, but because they’ve built operations that don’t need to predict. They’ve built operations that can pivot.
For aftermarket leaders, the question isn’t “how do we survive tariffs?” It’s “are we building the kind of operation that can absorb any shock and emerge stronger?”
The 51% optimizing inventory and demand planning in response to tariffs aren’t just solving today’s problem. They’re building tomorrow’s competitive advantage. And that advantage isn’t about tariffs at all. It’s about resilience.
Ben Groeneveld is Industry Principal for Global Supply Chain Solutions at Syncron, where he works with equipment manufacturers on aftermarket strategy and implementation. Previously at Oracle, AGCO, and Navistar, he has 20+ years of experience helping OEMs navigate supply chain disruption and optimize parts operations.
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