The reduction in scrappage has significant consequences for four factors shaping the country’s automotive aftermarket. Here’s what they are.
Fort Wayne, Ind.—Cars and light trucks in the U.S. are being scrapped at a below-average annual rate. Approximately 22 million cars and light trucks dodged the junk pile in the U.S. between 2015 and 2025, due to vehicle scrappage rates averaging about one-fifth lower than over the previous 15 years.
Nearly all vehicles that avoided being scrapped were internal combustion engine (ICE) cars and light trucks, according to the latest Lang Marketing Aftermarket iReport.
The reduction in scrappage has significant consequences for four factors shaping the country’s automotive aftermarket:
• The number of vehicles in operation (VIO).
• The proportion of domestic and foreign nameplates.
• The increasing population of older automobiles.
• The domination by ICE vehicles.
Here’s a closer look at the analysis and a few key takeaways in summary.
Lower Annual Scrappage Rates
Light-vehicle scrappage (the removal of vehicles from service) in the U.S. has traditionally increased when new-car and light-truck sales rise or the number of older vehicles increases.
However, annual scrappage rates fell from 2015 to 2025, despite the unprecedented growth of older vehicles (topping 15 years) and record-high new-vehicle sales during half of this period.
Vehicles in Operation (VIO)
Lower vehicle scrappage rates increased the nation’s VIO by about 22 million cars and light trucks between 2015 and 2025, which otherwise would have landed in the junkyard had annual scrappage rates not declined.
The 22 million cars and light trucks not scrapped accounted for more than 70% of the total VIO gain (approximately 31 million) during those years.
Domestic Nameplate VIO
Domestic nameplate cars and light trucks accounted for over two-thirds of all vehicles scrapped over the past 10 years. About twice as many domestic nameplate cars were scrapped as new units sold during this time.
This means that the domestic nameplate population, which fell by 3 million, would have decreased by double digits during this period without lower annual scrappage. It slowed the growth of foreign nameplates as a percent of all light VIO despite their record-setting share of new-vehicle sales.
Older Vehicle Age Groups
Older cars and light trucks, particularly those over 15 years old, account for a disproportionate share of scrapped vehicles.
They are more likely than newer vehicles to be “totaled” in accidents (because of their diminished value) and less likely to be spared from scrappage when expensive repairs are needed.
As a result, the below-average scrappage rates have been a significant force driving the record growth of vehicles 15 years and older on U.S. roads.
More ICE Vehicles on the Road
ICE vehicles constituted virtually all of the 22 million cars and light trucks not scrapped from 2015 to 2025. The total number of ICE vehicles not scrapped was more than five times the new-market sales of Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) over these 10 years.
As a result, ICE vehicles (including hybrids) represented over 98% of the 2024 VIO, a much larger share than if scrappage rates had remained high and the approximately 22 million ICE vehicles had been sent to scrappage.
Aftermarket Consequences
Low scrappage rates have impacted the aftermarket in four significant ways.
• The nation’s expanding VIO is favorable for aftermarket product growth.
• The impact of below-average scrappage on the foreign and domestic nameplate mix affects the aftermarket by shaping where automotive parts are sold, where vehicles are serviced, and the brands of products used in vehicle repair and maintenance.
• Low scrappage rates have driven the growth of older vehicles on the road, especially those topping 15 years of age. This is incresasing aftermarket volume since older vehciles require more aftermarket products and services per mile than newer models.
• Low scrappage rates have helped ICE vehicles to maintain a dominant share of the nation’s VIO and light-vehicle aftermarket volume. This has significant aftermarket consequences, ranging from the brands of repair products used to the total volume of aftermarket products and where parts and services are purchased.
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