The concentration reflects population changes of repair outlets in the U.S., shifting nameplate mix and the age profile of the VIO, and other factors
Fort Wayne, Ind.—Do-It-For-Me (DIFM) auto repair shop sales growth from now to 2028 will be highly concentrated, with 95% generated by only three types of repair outlets: Repair Specialists, Foreign Specialists, and Vehicle Dealers.
According to the latest Lang Aftermarket iReport, three of the other four major types of repair outlets will achieve very little DIFM sales growth, while the fourth will experience a decline in volume. These latter four types of outlets will generate only about 5% of the estimated $15 billion in DIFM product sales growth at user-price.
Lang Marketing states, “This sales-power concentration among only three types of repair outlets reflects the population changes of repair outlets in the U.S., the shifting nameplate mix and the age profile of vehicles in operation (VIO), changes in the competitive positioning of major groups of repair outlets, and other factors.”
The following is a summary and highlights from the analysis.
Major DIFM Outlet Groups
Lang Marketing tracks the DIFM light vehicle market performance across seven major groups of repair outlets: Service Stations & Garages, Repair Specialists, Foreign Specialists, Tire Stores, Auto Parts Stores with bays, Discount Stores/Mass Merchandisers with bays, and Vehicle Dealers.
Since 2020, shifts in the competitive performances of these outlet groups have accelerated. The pandemic triggered changes in their populations, while the country’s VIO underwent significant shifts in both nameplate mix and age profile.
Specialty DIFM Outlets
All three outlet types dominating DIFM growth through 2028 — Repair Specialists, Foreign Specialists, and Vehicle Dealers — are, to a significant degree, specialists in how they position themselves in the market.
• Repair Specialists typically offer limited repair menus.
• Foreign Specialists focus on foreign nameplate vehicles.
• Vehicle Dealers’ bays primarily service the nameplates they sell new.
This specialization provides competitive advantages in the rapidly evolving DIFM marketplace. Combined with their ability to capture disproportionate shares of the fastest-growing segments of the market — foreign nameplates and complex repairs — specialization has helped increase their expanding share of the DIFM market.
How DIFM Leaders Will Share Sales Growth
Repair Specialists and Vehicle Dealers will combine to generate over three-quarters of the DIFM market expansion from now to 2028. Of those two, which one that will generate the most growth will depend on who captures the two fastest-growing DIFM market sectors: foreign nameplates and complex repair, including diagnostics.
Foreign Specialists will lag behind due to their smaller population, but they will achieve the largest annual rate of DIFM sales growth from now to 2028.
Service Stations & Garage Outlet Numbers Decrease
For decades, Service Stations & Garages have led the DIFM market in sales share. However, they will make only a minor contribution to DIFM market growth between now and 2028. This reflects their decrease in outlet count and bay population since COVID-19.
Other Repair Outlets to Decline in Market Share
Tire Stores and Discount Stores/Mass Merchandisers will decline in DIFM market share through 2028. Despite this, they will each record small gains in DIFM sales. Retail Auto Parts Stores with bays, in contrast, will lose DIFM sales.
Aftermarket Impact
The concentration of light-vehicle growth among only three major types of repair outlets is creating three “significant” aftermarket consequences.
• The concentration of DIFM product volume among a few repair outlets is accelerating changes in the strength of product brands used in vehicle repair across the aftermarket.
• Vehicle product volume is shifting among the five major distribution channels supplying the car and light truck aftermarket, mainly due to the increased concentration of DIFM product sales.
• Falling Service Station & Garage product volume, resulting from their reduced population, reflects a reduction in the convenience of obtaining auto repair. This encourages the growth of online auto repair purchases and o2o (online-to-offline) DIFM transactions.
Lang Marketing projects that through the end of this decade, Repair Specialists, Foreign Specialists, and Vehicle Dealers will continue to outperform the other four groups of repair outlets. This will generate changes in key aspects of the repair market, including how consumers determine where to have vehicle repairs performed and how vehicle repair is marketed to consumers.
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